U.S. Presidential election decided by ≤100k votes?

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Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the second-place candidate in the 2024 U.S. presidential election could reach 270 Electoral College votes with an additional 100,000 votes, distributed optimally across any number of relevant jurisdictions (U.S. States, electoral districts, D.C). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To flip a jurisdiction, the number of additional votes allocated must be sufficient to give the second-place candidate a lead in that jurisdiction’s popular vote. Allocations that would result in a tie in any jurisdiction will not qualify, regardless of that jurisdiction's tie-breaker rules. For purposes of this market, a candidate will be considered to have won all electoral votes from a territory if they win the plurality of the votes, faithless electors will not be considered. This market will resolve based on vote totals for the 2024 Presidential election according to uselectionatlas.org once their dataset includes the certified vote totals for all U.S. States and the District of Columbia. If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after uselectionatlas.org has published vote totals based on the final certifications, the recount will not be considered. If there are no outstanding recounts, and electionatlas.org has not published vote totals based on the state certified results by December 17, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the total vote numbers from the United States Elections Project (electproject.org). If the United States Elections Project has not published certified vote totals, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.