SportsMulti-outcomeExpires
Creator

Will 1w have the shallowest hero pool at EWC 2026?

Probability

1h

-4.0pp

24h

-0.5pp

24h Vol

$152.46

Liquidity

$613.18

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active · uma=proposed

Derived status (Orrery)

UMA PENDING

Reason

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.

Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • UMA status: proposed
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Probability (last 7 days)

-24.9pp 7d
1007550250
0¢
Jul 7, 2026, 08:00 UTCJul 14, 2026, 07:01 UTC
updated 07:02:02 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-07-14T07-02Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $613 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

oracle review
Trust transition

The market is in an oracle/review state where proposal, dispute, and final settlement evidence matter more than the displayed price.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Settlement state

required

Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.

Current evidence: UMA pending

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will 1w have the shallowest hero pool at EWC 2026? State: UMA pending — oracle review Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will 1w have the shallowest hero pool at EWC 2026? State: oracle review Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Price movement

-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

Biggest hourly move: -50.5pp at 03:00 (to 4¢).

Show top 8 of 25 hourly moves
  • 03:00 · -50.5pp → 4¢
  • 12:00 · -36.4pp → 1¢
  • 11:00 · -36.4pp → 1¢
  • Jul 13, 07:00 UTC · -36.4pp → 1¢
  • Jul 13, 06:00 UTC · -36.4pp → 1¢
  • Jul 13, 05:00 UTC · -36.4pp → 1¢
  • Jul 13, 04:00 UTC · -36.4pp → 1¢
  • Jul 13, 03:00 UTC · -36.4pp → 1¢
updated 07:02:02 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 07:02:02 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to the team that uses the least unique heroes across the 2026 Esports World Cup (EWC) Dota 2 tournament with a minimum of 5 completed games, held July 7–19, 2026 in Paris, France. A team's "hero pool" is the set of distinct heroes that team drafts and plays across all of its completed official games at EWC 2026. A hero counts once toward a team's pool no matter how many times that team picks it, and regardless of which player on the team plays it. Only completed official games count (group stage, survival/gauntlet stage, and playoffs). Heroes picked in a game that is remade or not completed do not count from that game, but count if picked by the team in any other completed game. Bans are not counted; only heroes drafted and played count toward a team's pool. This market resolves to the team with the least unique heroes played at the conclusion of the tournament with 5 or more completed games. If two or more teams are tied for the least unique heroes, the market resolves to the tied team that played the more number of total games at the tournament. If teams remain tied on both unique heroes and total games played, the market resolves to the tied team with the higher final tournament placement. If a tie still persists, the market will resolve to the team that comes first alphabetically. If the tournament is cancelled, postponed past August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the results are not determined within that timeframe, this market will also resolve to "Other." The primary resolution source for this market will be Datdota (https://www.datdota.com). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

world cup

Reason

World Cup — Sports (qualified by election overrides above).

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will 1w have the shallowest hero pool at EWC 2026?"?

As of Tue, 14 Jul 2026 07:02:02 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.5pp in the last 24 hours, -4.0pp in the last hour, and -24.9pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

Resolution date is not yet set on Polymarket. Settlement source when posted: UMA optimistic oracle (proposed).

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$152.46 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $239.50. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $613.18. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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