Where can I see the live data, signals, and large-trade flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/will-abbas-araghchi-be-the-next-supreme-leader-of-iran renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/will-abbas-araghchi-be-the-next-supreme-leader-of-iran/markdown.

PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Dec 31, 2026Closed

Creator

Will Abbas Araghchi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Probability

0¢

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$0.00

Historical archiveResolved NO

Orrery restored this market from Polymarket's closed-market records. Treat the numbers below as last-known market context, then verify the resolution source before citing the outcome.

How Orrery handles status →

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Markets Detail Watchlist Alert Brief

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active · closed · uma=resolved

Derived status (Orrery)

RESOLVED NO

Reason

Upstream marked the market closed/settled with NO price dominant.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Dec 31, 2026
UMA status: resolved
Resolution source: Primary
Official government information
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d

No price history available

updated 11:03:19 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-04T11-03Z

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Dec 31, 2026
UMA status: resolved
Resolution source: Primary
Official government information
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Verification brief

officially resolved

The market appears resolved. The useful check is whether the source and final oracle state match the displayed outcome.

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary official government source source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: Official government information

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram pilot prompt

Orrery verification task Will Abbas Araghchi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? State: Resolved NO — officially resolved Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official government source source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification post

Orrery verification brief Will Abbas Araghchi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? State: officially resolved Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Source-drop audit

Submit durable sources that map to one resolution criterion.

Recent drops

Contributor audit

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution
Market resolves in 5028.9h
LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

updated 11:03:19 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flow Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 11:03:19 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Category · Politics

Market Description

The Supreme Leader of Iran is chosen by the Assembly of Experts. This market will resolve according to the person who is named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei. Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market. If Ali Khamenei remains the Supreme Leader of Iran or the next Supreme Leader of Iran is not officially announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None by June 30”. If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “Position abolished”. Only individuals formally appointed to the office titled “Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran” (or a clearly direct constitutional equivalent replacing that title) will qualify. Individuals serving solely as President, head of state, head of government, or in any other role that is not explicitly the Supreme Leader or a direct constitutional equivalent will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Abbas Araghchi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?"?

As of Thu, 04 Jun 2026 11:03:19 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved).

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $0.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $0.00. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

11 wallets

YES

0xa5ef…2966542.7K

Open on Polymarket