Will Austria recognize Palestine before 2027?
Probability
11¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$25.38
Liquidity
$15.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Thin liquidity
Only $15.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
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Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5943.1h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 11¢.
Biggest hourly move: -3.5pp at 3d ago (to 8¢).
Show 7 hourly moves
- 10:00 · +3.0pp → 11¢
- 1d ago · +3.0pp → 12¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 11¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 11¢
- 3d ago · +3.5pp → 11¢
- 3d ago · +3.0pp → 11¢
- 3d ago · -3.5pp → 8¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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