Will Greece recognize Palestine before 2027?
Probability
10¢
1h
-0.3pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$23.84
Liquidity
$15.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.3pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 10¢; -0.3pp in the last hour.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $15.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
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Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5943.1h
Price movement
-1.4pp over the last 24h, now 10¢.
Biggest hourly move: -4.2pp at 1d ago (to 6¢).
Show 5 hourly moves
- 1d ago · -3.3pp → 6¢
- 1d ago · -3.9pp → 6¢
- 1d ago · -4.2pp → 6¢
- 3d ago · -3.1pp → 9¢
- 3d ago · -3.3pp → 8¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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