Will Catherine McKenney win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?
Probability
3¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
+0.3pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$3.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
-5.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Thin liquidity
Only $3.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 4391.4h
Price movement
+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.
Biggest hourly move: -5.8pp at 2d ago (to 3¢).
Show 3 hourly moves
- 2d ago · -3.1pp → 3¢
- 2d ago · -3.2pp → 3¢
- 2d ago · -5.8pp → 3¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The 2026 Ottawa mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Ottawa.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Oct 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.