Will Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?
Probability
42¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
-0.4pp
24h Vol
$71.83
Liquidity
$22.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+18.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 560h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $22.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 560.3h
- 15:40SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 560h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.8pp
to 42¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.2pp
to 42¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 42¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.4pp
to 42¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.2pp
to 39¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 42¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.1pp
to 42¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.1pp
to 42¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 41¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.8pp
to 42¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.8pp
to 43¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.8pp
to 42¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 42¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.8pp
to 44¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.8pp
to 44¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.5pp
to 43¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.6pp
to 43¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.1pp
to 34¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.4pp
to 35¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.3pp
to 36¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.3pp
to 36¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.2pp
to 36¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.8pp
to 33¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.6pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.3pp
to 36¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.6pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 31¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 19, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-03 congressional district seat in the UAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).