Will Emily Flippen be voted off Survivor Season 50 this week?
Probability
81¢
1h
+31.0pp
24h
+61.0pp
24h Vol
$258.45
Liquidity
$285.51
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.
Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 6, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Market expires May 6, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (27.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 61pp over 24h
Now 81¢; +31.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 27.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 6, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Market expires May 6, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (27.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 17:59SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 00:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolved 18h ago
Price movement
+61.0pp over the last 24h, now 81¢.
Biggest hourly move: +43.0pp at 14:00 (to 56¢).
Show top 8 of 49 hourly moves
- 17:00 · +34.0pp → 48¢
- 15:00 · +43.0pp → 56¢
- 14:00 · +43.0pp → 56¢
- 3d ago · -16.0pp → 9¢
- 3d ago · -17.0pp → 8¢
- 3d ago · -17.0pp → 8¢
- 3d ago · -16.5pp → 9¢
- 3d ago · -16.5pp → 9¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed contestant is voted off of Survivor: Season 50 during the episode scheduled to release May 6, 2026 8:00PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No" If the relevant episode of Survivor is not aired by the date of this show's next scheduled release, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Evacuations, medical disqualifications, or voluntary or involuntary forfeitures not as a result of voting will not qualify towards the resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market will be the official broadcast of the relevant episode of Survivor.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Emily Flippen be voted off Survivor Season 50 this week?"?
As of Wed, 06 May 2026 17:59:13 GMT, YES is priced at 81% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +61.0pp in the last 24 hours, +31.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 6, 2026 (2026-05-06T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$258.45 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $561.17. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $285.51. Spread between best bid and best ask: 27.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
