Will Federico Valverde win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$81.89
Liquidity
$7.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 4518h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $7.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 4518.5h
- 17:32SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 4518h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Oct 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’OrAmbiguous wordingextracted · lowfrancefootball.fr
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.