Will ground beef hit $8 per pound in 2026?
Probability
51¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-1.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$88.58
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5988.6h
- 11:21SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5989h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 52¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 52¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 52¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 52¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 52¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 52¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 44¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 42¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 46¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time. The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the data for 2026 already available at that timeAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (42.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).