Will ground beef hit $7 per pound in 2026?
Probability
50¢
1h
+3.5pp
24h
+7.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$62.00
Probability (last 7 days)
-8.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 7pp over 24h
Now 50¢; +3.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5987h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 60.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5987.0h
- 12:59SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5987h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 56¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 52¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 51¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 54¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 46¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 49¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 46¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 56¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 48¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 57¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 57¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 57¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.5pp
to 47¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 50¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.0pp
to 47¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 54¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 60¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 67¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 63¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 64¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 55¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 57¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 57¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time. The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the data for 2026 already available at that timeAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (60.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).