Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 30, 2026?

1. 1

   Down 3pp over 24h

   Now 4¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 104h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $14.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Houthis initiate a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Saudi Arabia's ground territory between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM Arabian Standard Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Houthi forces that physically impact land under Saudi Arabia's control. Saudi Arabia's ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Saudi Arabia as of market creation. Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Saudi Arabia's soil or causes damage. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.