Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.25% and 2.99%?
Probability
25¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+3.5pp
24h Vol
$420.79
Liquidity
$830.83
Probability (last 7 days)
+8.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 4pp over 24h
Now 25¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6272h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6272.3h
- 15:41SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6272h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:41PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 22¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 22¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 17¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 23¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 23¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 23¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 23¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 23¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 23¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 22¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 22¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month. The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 12, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-YearAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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