Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

1. 1

   Up 5pp over 24h

   Now 31¢; -31.5pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Heavy volume on this book — 5.3× turnover

   $85.5k traded against $16.1k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

3. 3

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 104h with open resolution ambiguity.

4. 4

   Thin liquidity

   Only $16.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.