PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires May 16, 2026
Creator

Will John Fleming finish first in the first round of the Louisiana Republican Senate primary?

Probability

5¢

1h

-1.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$3.0K

Liquidity

$15.1K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

NEAR EXPIRY

Reason

Resolves in 8h.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 16, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires May 16, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
5¢
May 15, 2026, 01:00 UTCMay 15, 2026, 15:36 UTC
updated 15:36:52 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-15T15-36Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 8h.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $15.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 8 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 00:00Scheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 8.4h

    HIGH
  • 15:36Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 8h.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 5¢.

updated 15:36:52 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 15:36:52 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventLouisiana Republican Senate Primary First Round Winner
Category · Politics

Market Description

The Louisiana Republican Senate Primary is currently scheduled to be held on May 16, 2026, with a runoff on June 27 if no candidate wins a majority in the primary. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If no 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Louisiana Republican Party; however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Politics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

republican

Reason

Question text contains "republican" — matched the Politics keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will John Fleming finish first in the first round of the Louisiana Republican Senate primary?"?

As of Fri, 15 May 2026 15:36:52 GMT, YES is priced at 5% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, -1.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 16, 2026 (2026-05-16T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$3.0K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $3.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $15.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket