Will Josh Cowen be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?

1. 1

   Down 3pp over 24h

   Now 5¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 2409h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $14.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.