PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Aug 14, 2028
Creator

Will Kristi Noem be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?

Probability

22¢

1h

+9.0pp

24h

+0.1pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$5.6K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Aug 14, 2028
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the
Link
gop.com
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (40.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.2pp 7d
1007550250
22¢
May 8, 2026, 14:00 UTCMay 15, 2026, 13:23 UTC
updated 13:23:48 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-15T13-23Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 40.6¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Aug 14, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 19714.6h

    LOW
  • 13:23Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.1pp over the last 24h, now 22¢.

Biggest hourly move: -7.1pp at May 13, 20:00 UTC (to 15¢).

Show top 8 of 12 hourly moves
  • 03:00 · +6.2pp → 23¢
  • 01:00 · +6.7pp → 24¢
  • 21:00 · +5.2pp → 23¢
  • May 13, 20:00 UTC · -7.1pp → 15¢
  • May 12, 15:00 UTC · -4.9pp → 17¢
  • May 12, 13:00 UTC · -5.1pp → 17¢
  • May 12, 09:00 UTC · -4.3pp → 18¢
  • May 12, 08:00 UTC · -4.3pp → 18¢
updated 13:23:48 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 13:23:48 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

13
Same eventRepublican VP Nominee 2028
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

presidential election

Reason

Election markets must always classify as Politics, never as Sports — Roadmap §3 invariant 2.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Kristi Noem be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?"?

As of Fri, 15 May 2026 13:23:48 GMT, YES is priced at 22% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +9.0pp in the last hour, and +0.2pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Aug 14, 2028 (2028-08-14T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $169.08. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $5.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 40.6¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

10 wallets
Open on Polymarket