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EntertainmentExpires Dec 31, 2026

Will Lana Del Rey release an album in 2026?

Probability

79¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-7.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$1.7K

Probability (last 7 days)

-11.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 12:35
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 7pp over 24h

    Now 79¢; flat in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 5987h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 5.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 5987.4h

    LOW
  • 12:36Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 5987h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -5.5pp

    to 79¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability down -6.0pp

    to 79¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -6.0pp

    to 79¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -6.0pp

    to 79¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability down -8.5pp

    to 79¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability down -8.0pp

    to 78¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -8.0pp

    to 78¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability down -8.0pp

    to 78¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability down -5.5pp

    to 81¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability down -5.5pp

    to 84¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability down -17.0pp

    to 73¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 86¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 86¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability down -6.0pp

    to 84¢

    MEDIUM
  • 13:00Price

    Probability down -5.5pp

    to 85¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 86¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.5pp

    to 85¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.5pp

    to 85¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 85¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -12.0pp

    to 78¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -8.0pp

    to 82¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 85¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.0pp

    to 83¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -8.0pp

    to 82¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 86¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.5pp

    to 84¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -17.0pp

    to 72¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 85¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new album between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including recordings of live events) by the resolution date. Album releases including non-original tracks such as live-versions, re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums, or similar non original or altered versions of previously released songs will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release. The primary resolution sources will be official streaming and download platforms. In cases of ambiguity over how a song/album is labeled, the listed resolution sources will be consulted in the following order of precedence: Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Music, and Deezer.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
  • Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

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