Will Larry Page be 3rd richest person on December 31?
Probability
26¢
1h
+0.4pp
24h
-2.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$2.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
+4.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 26¢; +0.4pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5979h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 37.9¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5978.5h
- 21:29SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5979h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-0.2pp over the last 24h, now 26¢.
Biggest hourly move: +11.4pp at 23:00 (to 29¢).
Show top 8 of 37 hourly moves
- 00:00 · +9.3pp → 27¢
- 23:00 · +11.4pp → 29¢
- 1d ago · +10.0pp → 30¢
- 1d ago · +9.2pp → 27¢
- 1d ago · +9.3pp → 28¢
- 2d ago · +10.9pp → 29¢
- 2d ago · +10.1pp → 26¢
- 2d ago · +10.9pp → 29¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #3 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (37.9¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.