Will Mark Zuckerberg be 3rd richest person on December 31?
Probability
30¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$2.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 36.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5984.0h
- 16:02SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 31¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 31¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 17¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 22¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 31¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 32¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 32¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #3 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- BloombergNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (36.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).