Will Leavitt say "Successful" during the next White House press briefing?
Probability
44¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
-4.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$59.54
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 5pp over 24h
Now 44¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 121h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 61.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 121.1h
- 22:54SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 121h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-3.0pp over the last 24h, now 45¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the acting White House Press Secretary says the listed term during the next White House press briefing they participate in. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated content will not be considered when resolving this market. If no such press briefing happens by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers to White House press briefings by the acting White House Press Secretary (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/). Any press briefing by the acting White House Press Secretary will qualify. "New Media" press briefings or special briefings such as those including extra guests will be considered, so long as the acting White House Press Secretary is a listed participant. Impromptu press gaggles will not be considered for the resolution of this market; only events listed on the public schedule as briefings or announcements will qualify. The resolution source for this market will be footage of the relevant briefing.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (61.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.