Will Lindsey Graham be the next Senate Majority Leader?
Probability
2¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$18.8K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.
Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 3, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the individual who is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, UTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $18.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 3, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the individual who is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, UTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jan 3, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 5509.2h
- 10:48SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 50¢0.0
Will Person AV be the next Senate Majority Leader?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Will Person AB be the next Senate Majority Leader?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Will Person AD be the next Senate Majority Leader?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 14¢-1.8
Will Tom Cotton be the next Senate Majority Leader?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 10¢0.0
Will Brian Schatz be the next Senate Majority Leader?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 3¢+0.1
Will Amy Klobuchar be the next Senate Majority Leader?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 4¢+0.1
Will Cory Booker be the next Senate Majority Leader?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Will John Cornyn be the next Senate Majority Leader?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 100¢0.0
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?
Politics · Vol $4.5M
- 8¢+1.0
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Politics · Vol $2.3M
- 1¢-0.1
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $468.8K
- 4¢-6.1
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?
Politics · Vol $356.6K
- 1¢-0.1
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $323.7K
- 1¢-0.1
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $250.9K
Market Description
This market will resolve according to the individual who is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, at which point it will resolve based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate. If no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
general electionReason
Election markets are Politics.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Lindsey Graham be the next Senate Majority Leader?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 10:48:56 GMT, YES is priced at 2% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.1pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jan 3, 2027 (2027-01-03T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $11.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $18.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.2¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.