SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Dec 31, 2026
Creator

Will Merab Dvalishvili fight Umar Nurmagomedov next?

Probability

25¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.2pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$128.23

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official UFC data
Link
ufc.com
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (45.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.3pp 7d
1007550250
25¢
Jun 6, 2026, 23:00 UTCJun 13, 2026, 22:53 UTC
updated 22:53:50 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-13T22-53Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 45.8¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

liquidity sensitive
Trust transition

Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: Official UFC data

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will Merab Dvalishvili fight Umar Nurmagomedov next? State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will Merab Dvalishvili fight Umar Nurmagomedov next? State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 4801.1h

    LOW
  • 22:53Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.2pp over the last 24h, now 25¢.

Biggest hourly move: +6.8pp at Jun 10, 08:00 UTC (to 24¢).

Show top 8 of 16 hourly moves
  • 09:00 · -4.0pp → 23¢
  • Jun 11, 11:00 UTC · +4.5pp → 24¢
  • Jun 11, 10:00 UTC · +4.3pp → 24¢
  • Jun 11, 09:00 UTC · +4.8pp → 24¢
  • Jun 11, 07:00 UTC · +4.0pp → 24¢
  • Jun 10, 08:00 UTC · +6.8pp → 24¢
  • Jun 9, 20:00 UTC · -4.1pp → 22¢
  • Jun 9, 15:00 UTC · -4.8pp → 22¢
updated 22:53:50 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 22:53:50 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWho will Merab Dvalishivili fight next?
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the next UFC fighter that Merab Dvalishvili is officially announced to face in a UFC bout. Resolution for this market will be based on the next UFC fighter that Merab Dvalishvili is officially announced to fight, regardless of whether the fight ends up taking place. Only official announcements from the UFC, which include a scheduled date for the bout, will count. Announcements with no date or which do not confirm that the fight is official, speculation, or other unofficial announcements will not count. If Dvalishvili is officially announced to fight any non-listed fighter or no qualifying announcement is made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/).

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

ufc

Reason

UFC — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Merab Dvalishvili fight Umar Nurmagomedov next?"?

As of Sat, 13 Jun 2026 22:53:50 GMT, YES is priced at 25% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.2pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.3pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $915.41. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $128.23. Spread between best bid and best ask: 45.8¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

19 wallets
Open on Polymarket