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OtherMulti-outcomeExpires Dec 31, 2026

Will Merab Dvalishvili fight Umar Nurmagomedov next?

Probability

38¢

1h

-2.0pp

24h

+15.1pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$76.44

Probability (last 7 days)

+28.2pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 16:00Apr 25, 2026, 15:04
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Up 15pp over 24h

    Now 38¢; -2.0pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 75.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 5984.9h

    LOW
  • 15:04Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 15:00Price

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 39¢

    MEDIUM
  • 13:00Price

    Probability up 12.4pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability up 8.5pp

    to 34¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability up 10.1pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 07:00Price

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 7.3pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -10.9pp

    to 22¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability down -4.4pp

    to 23¢

    MEDIUM
  • 22:00Price

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 29¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 7.4pp

    to 35¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 33.6pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability up 19.1pp

    to 21¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability up 20.2pp

    to 22¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 36.6pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 20.1pp

    to 25¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 42.4pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 30.9pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 33.0pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 28.9pp

    to 39¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 33.3pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 27.5pp

    to 39¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 13.3pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 13.2pp

    to 29¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 12.7pp

    to 30¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -8.2pp

    to 18¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.1pp

    to 22¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 11.8pp

    to 29¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.4pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the next UFC fighter that Merab Dvalishvili is officially announced to face in a UFC bout. Resolution for this market will be based on the next UFC fighter that Merab Dvalishvili is officially announced to fight, regardless of whether the fight ends up taking place. Only official announcements from the UFC, which include a scheduled date for the bout, will count. Announcements with no date or which do not confirm that the fight is official, speculation, or other unofficial announcements will not count. If Dvalishvili is officially announced to fight any non-listed fighter or no qualifying announcement is made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/).

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (75.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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