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EntertainmentMulti-outcomeExpires Apr 27, 2026

Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m?

Probability

1h

-0.1pp

24h

-21.9pp

24h Vol

$11.7K

Liquidity

$12.1K

Probability (last 7 days)

-13.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 07:00Apr 25, 2026, 05:11
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 54.8h

    HIGH
  • 05:11Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 55h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 05:00Price

    Probability down -11.9pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability down -11.8pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -16.8pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability down -15.2pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 22:00Price

    Probability down -14.8pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability down -14.3pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability down -14.8pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability down -14.5pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability down -12.4pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability down -12.3pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability down -11.0pp

    to 6¢

    MEDIUM
  • 13:00Price

    Probability down -11.5pp

    to 6¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -11.0pp

    to 6¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability down -12.5pp

    to 6¢

    MEDIUM
  • 10:00Price

    Probability down -13.0pp

    to 6¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -12.5pp

    to 6¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability down -11.5pp

    to 7¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.5pp

    to 23¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.5pp

    to 24¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 10.0pp

    to 24¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 12.5pp

    to 25¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 13.0pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 12.0pp

    to 25¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 15.5pp

    to 30¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.0pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.5pp

    to 18¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.0pp

    to 18¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 24 - April 26) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 27, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Ambiguous wording
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires Apr 27, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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