Will Michelle Yeoh appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?
Probability
90¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+39.0pp
24h Vol
$3.1K
Liquidity
$3.2K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 39pp over 24h
Now 90¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $3.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability drops back below 85¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will Michelle Yeoh appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will Michelle Yeoh appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jul 26, 23:59 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 267.0h
Price movement
+39.0pp over the last 24h, now 90¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
San Diego Comic-Con 2026 is currently scheduled for July 22-26, 2026, at the San Diego Convention Center, with programming in Hall H running July 23-25, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual appears on stage in Hall H at SDCC 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Appearing on stage is defined as being physically present on the Hall H stage. A prerecorded video message, an appearance via live video or hologram, or an appearance anywhere else at the convention (e.g. other panel rooms, the exhibit hall, offsite events, or surprise drop-ins outside Hall H) will not qualify. An appearance will only qualify if it takes place on one of the calendar days of San Diego Comic-Con 2026, PT. If no qualifying appearance has occurred by the end of San Diego Comic-Con 2026 or August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT, whichever passes earlier, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be the official communication channels of San Diego Comic-Con and/or the participating studios; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Michelle Yeoh appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?"?
As of Wed, 15 Jul 2026 21:01:29 GMT, YES is priced at 90% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +39.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jul 26, 2026 (2026-07-26T23:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$3.1K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $3.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $3.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.