Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?
Probability
9¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
+1.8pp
24h Vol
$16.06
Liquidity
$2.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 9¢; +0.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5987h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 9.5¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5987.1h
- 12:51SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5987h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.2pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.9pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.7pp
to 15¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.6pp
to 15¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.4pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.6pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.8pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.1pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.6pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.2pp
to 10¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that TikTok will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with the listed entity, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by TikTok will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. If TikTok is part of an acquisition or merger involving the specified entity, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether it is the sole buyer or partner. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from TikTok or the listed entity, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be use
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (9.5¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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