Will Monday be the most viewed day of Jesse Watters Primetime for the week of August 3 - August 9?
Probability
99¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
+39.1pp
24h Vol
$2.1K
Liquidity
$939.37
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Methodology explanation
Review-only opportunity
No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.
Why this market is in review
signalResolution-source risk
30% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Paper-only action
paper-onlyReview-only opportunity
read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.
Risk / veto readback
reviewResolution review required
The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.
Source evidence
source4 mapped surfaces
283/283 sources runtime-backed; all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false.
Signals
- Resolution-source riskwatch
30% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Veto / blockers
- Resolution review requiredwatch
The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.
- Confidence below paper gatewatch
Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.
Costs / sizing
- Research score
- Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
- Capacity
- Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
- Liquidity
- Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false; this card cites mapped surfaces only.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Sep 1, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the day of the week on which the episode of Jesse Watters Primetime with the highest number of ULinkTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- UMA status: proposed
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 39pp over 24h
Now 99¢; +0.1pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $939 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Sep 1, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the day of the week on which the episode of Jesse Watters Primetime with the highest number of ULinkTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- UMA status: proposed
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is in an oracle/review state where proposal, dispute, and final settlement evidence matter more than the displayed price.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: https://www.nielsen.com/data-center/top-ten/#television
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Settlement state
requiredCheck whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.
Current evidence: UMA pending
Orrery verification task Will Monday be the most viewed day of Jesse Watters Primetime for the week of August 3 - August 9? State: UMA pending — oracle review Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will Monday be the most viewed day of Jesse Watters Primetime for the week of August 3 - August 9? State: oracle review Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Sep 1, 03:59 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 420.4h
- 15:37SignalLOW
Resolution risk
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
Price movement
+39.1pp over the last 24h, now 99¢.
Biggest hourly move: +56.6pp at 15:00 (to 99¢).
Show top 8 of 10 hourly moves
- 15:00 · +56.6pp → 99¢
- 14:00 · +56.0pp → 99¢
- 12:00 · +51.0pp → 94¢
- 07:00 · +18.0pp → 61¢
- 06:00 · +16.5pp → 61¢
- 05:00 · +17.5pp → 60¢
- 03:00 · +16.5pp → 60¢
- 01:00 · +18.0pp → 61¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
1Market Description
Nielsen updates its Linear TV Top 10 Cable Chart on Thursdays, reflecting U.S. TV viewership data from the previous week (Monday-Sunday). This market will resolve according to the day of the week on which the episode of Jesse Watters Primetime with the highest number of U.S. viewers (Persons 2+ average total viewers, P2+) aired during the Week of August 3 - August 9, as reported on the Linear TV Top 10 Cable Chart. This market will resolve based on the first official estimate reported by Nielsen. Any later revisions or retractions will have no bearing on resolution. If Nielsen reports an entry for Jesse Watters Primetime without specifying the day of the week on which it aired, that entry will be treated as having aired on Monday. If the specified show does not appear on the final chart for the specified week, this market will resolve to "Monday". If two or more episodes of Jesse Watters Primetime are reported with the same number of viewers, and that figure is the highest reported for the specified week, this market will resolve to the earliest of those days within the Monday-Sunday week. If the data for the specified week is entirely unreleased by 11:59 PM ET on the second Thursday following the specified week, this market will resolve to "Monday". If the data for the specified week remains partially published (i.e. excluding certain days of the week) by that time, this market will resolve based on the viewership data available at that point. This market will resolve according to Nielsen’s P2+ viewership statistic for the specified week, as reported on the Linear TV Top 10 Cable Chart, regardless of any future changes in methodology. The resolution source for this market will be information from Nielsen, specifically their P2+ viewership statistic as reported on the Linear TV Top 10 Cable Chart (see: https://www.nielsen.com/data-center/top-ten/#television).
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Monday be the most viewed day of Jesse Watters Primetime for the week of August 3 - August 9?"?
As of Fri, 14 Aug 2026 15:37:29 GMT, YES is priced at 99% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +39.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.1pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Sep 1, 2026 (2026-09-01T03:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.nielsen.com/data-center/top-ten/#television.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.nielsen.com/data-center/top-ten/#television. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$2.1K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $939.37. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.7¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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