Will MrBeast say "Tesla" or "Lamborghini" during his next video?
Probability
0¢
1h
-1.6pp
24h
-32.7pp
24h Vol
$477.34
Liquidity
$759.13
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 33pp over 24h
Now 0¢; -1.6pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $759 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 676.7h
- 19:19SignalLOW
Resolution risk
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
Price movement
-32.7pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Biggest hourly move: -29.7pp at 19:19 (to 0¢).
Show top 8 of 17 hourly moves
- 19:19 · -29.7pp → 0¢
- 18:00 · -25.6pp → 4¢
- 17:00 · -24.9pp → 5¢
- 03:00 · +7.5pp → 33¢
- 02:00 · +7.0pp → 33¢
- 1d ago · -11.0pp → 32¢
- 1d ago · -14.0pp → 28¢
- 2d ago · -14.0pp → 28¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
MrBeast releases videos on https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mr Beast says the listed term during the next video he releases on YouTube. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If clips of old videos or prerecorded clips are aired where people are speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution. Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). If no such video is posted by MrBeast by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the released video from (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast). Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.