BusinessExpires May 31, 2026
Creator

Will MrBeast say "Tesla" or "Lamborghini" during his next video?

Probability

1h

-1.6pp

24h

-32.7pp

24h Vol

$477.34

Liquidity

$759.13

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
May 31, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Primary
@MrBeast
Type
Social media post
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 28, 2026, 19:00May 2, 2026, 19:19
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 33pp over 24h

    Now 0¢; -1.6pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $759 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 676.7h

    LOW
  • 19:19Signal

    Resolution risk

    UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

    LOW

Price movement

-32.7pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

Biggest hourly move: -29.7pp at 19:19 (to 0¢).

Show top 8 of 17 hourly moves
  • 19:19 · -29.7pp → 0¢
  • 18:00 · -25.6pp → 4¢
  • 17:00 · -24.9pp → 5¢
  • 03:00 · +7.5pp → 33¢
  • 02:00 · +7.0pp → 33¢
  • 1d ago · -11.0pp → 32¢
  • 1d ago · -14.0pp → 28¢
  • 2d ago · -14.0pp → 28¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

MrBeast releases videos on https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mr Beast says the listed term during the next video he releases on YouTube. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If clips of old videos or prerecorded clips are aired where people are speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution. Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). If no such video is posted by MrBeast by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the released video from (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast). Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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