PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires May 19, 2026

Will Nate Morris be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

Probability

5¢

-0.4pp

24h

-0.4pp

24h Vol

$1.04

Liquidity

$20.1K

Probability (last 7 days)

-7.5pp 7d

Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 14:26

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors

1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 562h with open resolution ambiguity.
2
Thin liquidity
Only $20.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 561.6h
LOW
14:26Signal
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 562h with open resolution ambiguity.
LOW
08:00Price
Probability up 3.3pp
to 5¢
MEDIUM
06:00Price
Probability up 3.4pp
to 5¢
MEDIUM
05:00Price
Probability up 3.3pp
to 5¢
MEDIUM
03:00Price
Probability up 3.3pp
to 5¢
MEDIUM
02:00Price
Probability up 4.5pp
to 5¢
MEDIUM
00:00Price
Probability up 3.8pp
to 5¢
MEDIUM
23:00Price
Probability up 4.3pp
to 5¢
MEDIUM
21:00Price
Probability up 3.5pp
to 5¢
MEDIUM
20:00Price
Probability up 3.2pp
to 5¢
MEDIUM
18:00Price
Probability up 3.1pp
to 5¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 3.8pp
to 5¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -4.3pp
to 5¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -5.4pp
to 4¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -5.2pp
to 5¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -9.7pp
to 4¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -8.6pp
to 5¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -9.1pp
to 5¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -8.3pp
to 5¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -8.6pp
to 4¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -9.0pp
to 4¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -7.5pp
to 4¢
MEDIUM

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same eventKentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner

Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Kentucky. If no 2026 Kentucky Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Kentucky Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: May 19, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).

Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket