SportsExpires Jun 29, 2026
Creator

Will Netherlands be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup?

Probability

0¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-1.5pp

24h Vol

$911.57

Liquidity

$40.9K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active · uma=proposed

Derived status (Orrery)

UMA PENDING

Reason

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.

Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.

Methodology explanation

Review-only opportunity

No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.

read_only_explanationpaper-onlysend false

Why this market is in review

signal

Resolution-source risk

25% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Paper-only action

paper-only

Review-only opportunity

read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.

Risk / veto readback

review

Resolution review required

The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.

Source evidence

source

4 mapped surfaces

283/283 sources runtime-backed; all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false.

Signals

  • Resolution-source riskwatch

    25% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Veto / blockers

  • Resolution review requiredwatch

    The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.

  • Confidence below paper gatewatch

    Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.

Costs / sizing

Research score
Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
23
Capacity
Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
$3k
Liquidity
Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
$41k
Explanation packet2026-06-16.1
DecisionSignalsVetoes and capsCostsDriftShadow policyLearning statusAuthority
What can be learned
Source-to-runtime coverage283/283 runtime-backed0 unmapped

all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false; this card cites mapped surfaces only.

P32-Source-to-Runtime-Coverage-Matrix-v1semantic_risk_kernelmethodology_runtime_boundarypromotion_gate+3
live falsesecrets falsetraining falsenot advice

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Jun 29, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Primary
Official FIFA data
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-15.3pp 7d
1007550250
0¢
Jun 19, 2026, 03:00 UTCJun 26, 2026, 02:26 UTC
updated 02:26:33 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-26T02-26Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 1pp over 24h

    Now 0¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

oracle review
Trust transition

The market is in an oracle/review state where proposal, dispute, and final settlement evidence matter more than the displayed price.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: Official FIFA data

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Settlement state

required

Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.

Current evidence: UMA pending

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will Netherlands be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup? State: UMA pending — oracle review Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will Netherlands be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup? State: oracle review Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 29, 03:59 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 73.5h

    LOW
  • 02:26Signal

    Resolution risk

    UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

    LOW

Price movement

-1.5pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

Biggest hourly move: -46.3pp at Jun 23, 06:00 UTC (to 2¢).

Show top 8 of 33 hourly moves
  • Jun 23, 11:00 UTC · -23.9pp → 2¢
  • Jun 23, 09:00 UTC · -24.0pp → 2¢
  • Jun 23, 08:00 UTC · -24.1pp → 2¢
  • Jun 23, 06:00 UTC · -46.3pp → 2¢
  • Jun 23, 02:00 UTC · -14.0pp → 2¢
  • Jun 23, 00:00 UTC · -14.0pp → 2¢
  • Jun 22, 23:00 UTC · -14.0pp → 2¢
  • Jun 22, 21:00 UTC · -14.0pp → 2¢
updated 02:26:33 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 02:26:33 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWorld Cup: Third-Place Teams to Advance
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed team finishes third in its group and is one of the eight best third-placed teams that advance to the knockout stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A team that finishes third in its group but is NOT among the eight that advance resolves “No”. A team that does not finish third in its group (whether it finishes higher or lower) also resolves “No”. The eight best third-placed teams are determined by the official ranking procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after July 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the best third-place qualifiers cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

2026 fifa world cup

Reason

FIFA World Cup outright/team markets are Sports even when the team/country name is also a geopolitics keyword.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Netherlands be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup?"?

As of Fri, 26 Jun 2026 02:26:33 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -1.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -15.3pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 29, 2026 (2026-06-29T03:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed).

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$911.57 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $40.9K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

15 wallets
Open on Polymarket