Meaty-Ethyl
0xe54d1d00dfe039a154231fcfd0bd6274bf08c913
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
30
Open notional
$10.38
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$21.99
Win rate
36%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 30- NO
Will Antonio Villaraigosa advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?
5 shares @ 93.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$5.00
$0.30
- YES
Over $160B wagered on US sports betting in 2026?
3 shares @ 83.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.32
$-0.17
- YES
Will one person dissent the April Fed decision?
2 shares @ 30.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$2.00
$1.40
- YES
Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 74.0¢·now 15.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.75
$-2.95
- YES
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?
2 shares @ 14.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.25
$-0.03
- YES
Hyperbeat FDV above $200M one day after launch?
1 shares @ 12.0¢·now 3.6¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.04
$-0.08
- YES
Will Perplexity AI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
30 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.01
$-0.34
- YES
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
1 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.01
- YES
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026?
1 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.00
$-0.06
- OVER
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5
1126 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-585.52
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$74.36Jun 15, 14:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be between 60% and 65%?$21.00Apr 15, 07:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$220.02Apr 12, 00:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in April 2026?$112.42Apr 11, 19:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in April 2026?$134.32Apr 11, 19:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$267.90Apr 11, 07:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in April 2026?$246.74Apr 10, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$809.45Apr 10, 18:11 UTC
- TRADESELLKraken IPO by December 31, 2026?$288.05Apr 9, 21:26 UTC
- TRADESELLKraken IPO by December 31, 2026?$486.85Apr 9, 21:25 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?$48.14Apr 9, 10:41 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?$209.16Apr 9, 10:39 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?$24.90Apr 9, 10:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?$282.20Apr 8, 02:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYKraken IPO by December 31, 2026?$314.47Apr 8, 00:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYKraken IPO by December 31, 2026?$308.57Apr 8, 00:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYKraken IPO by December 31, 2026?$328.80Apr 7, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYKraken IPO by December 31, 2026?$366.00Apr 7, 19:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Memphis Grizzlies make the NBA Playoffs?$1.00Mar 31, 04:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill "China" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29)$808.00Mar 31, 04:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
36% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $237.39
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 12, 18:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 15, 14:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.