Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?

1. 1

   Down 2pp over 24h

   Now 5¢; -1.3pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $16.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

4. 4

   Past expiry — awaiting resolution

   Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

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First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates who advance to the runoff of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election. If a different combination of candidates than those listed below advances to the runoff, if no runoff is being held, for example, because a candidate wins the first round outright, or if the candidates of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).