PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Oct 5, 2026
Creator

Will Éric Duhaime be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?

Probability

2¢

1h

-0.1pp

24h

-2.5pp

24h Vol

$472.79

Liquidity

$6.8K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Oct 5, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official government information
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+1.9pp 7d
1007550250
2¢
May 9, 2026, 00:00 UTCMay 15, 2026, 23:44 UTC
updated 23:44:39 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-15T23-44Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 3pp over 24h

    Now 2¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $6.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Oct 5, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 3408.3h

    LOW

Price movement

-2.5pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.

Biggest hourly move: +11.7pp at 03:00 (to 12¢).

Show top 8 of 17 hourly moves
  • 17:00 · +9.3pp → 10¢
  • 15:00 · +8.6pp → 9¢
  • 11:00 · +6.9pp → 8¢
  • 09:00 · +8.0pp → 9¢
  • 08:00 · +7.8pp → 8¢
  • 06:00 · +7.8pp → 9¢
  • 05:00 · +11.6pp → 12¢
  • 03:00 · +11.7pp → 12¢
updated 23:44:39 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 23:44:39 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventNext Premier of Quebec
Category · Politics

Market Description

The 2026 Quebec general election is scheduled to be held no later than October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

general election

Reason

Election markets are Politics.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Éric Duhaime be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?"?

As of Fri, 15 May 2026 23:44:39 GMT, YES is priced at 2% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -2.5pp in the last 24 hours, -0.1pp in the last hour, and +1.9pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Oct 5, 2026 (2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$472.79 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $6.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $6.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.7¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

16 wallets
Open on Polymarket