Will Rick Edmonds be the Republican nominee for LA-05?
Probability
16¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
+2.9pp
24h Vol
$74.27
Liquidity
$13.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
+11.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 494.7h
- 09:17SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 495h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.7pp
to 17¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.9pp
to 17¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 17¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.4pp
to 16¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.3pp
to 18¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 16¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.4pp
to 16¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.1pp
to 13¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.8pp
to 15¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.7pp
to 13¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 13¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.2pp
to 14¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.2pp
to 8¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 10¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 13¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 15¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.2pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.9pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.6pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.7pp
to 5¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the UAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
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