Will Blake Miguez be the Republican nominee for LA-05?
Probability
60¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
-5.5pp
24h Vol
$19.00
Liquidity
$23.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
-14.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 6pp over 24h
Now 60¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 490h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 490.4h
- 13:36SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 490h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:36PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 59¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 61¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.5pp
to 60¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.5pp
to 60¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.0pp
to 59¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.5pp
to 59¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 64¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 64¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 64¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 64¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 64¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 65¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 65¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 65¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 66¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 66¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 65¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 66¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 65¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 66¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 65¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 66¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 68¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 71¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 72¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 71¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 70¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.5pp
to 72¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the UAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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