Will Ritesh Tandon advance from the CA-17 primary?
Probability
30¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+3.0pp
24h Vol
$179.94
Liquidity
$12.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+10.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 30¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 898h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $12.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 898.2h
- 13:50SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 898h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:50PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 30¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 30¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 31¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 30¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 30¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 30¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 30¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 31¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 31¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 31¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 42¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.5pp
to 48¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 35¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 35¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 35¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 34¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 23¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 27¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 24¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 17th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 2, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California'sAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).