Will Robert Lulgjuraj be the Republican Nominee for MI-10?
Probability
21¢
1h
-2.9pp
24h
-6.3pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$2.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.3pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 6pp over 24h
Now 21¢; -2.9pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 2410h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 22.3¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2409.7h
- 14:16SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 2410h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.7pp
to 26¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.4pp
to 26¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 26¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 24¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 24¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.1pp
to 23¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.4pp
to 25¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.4pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.7pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.2pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.7pp
to 26¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.1pp
to 22¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.7pp
to 18¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the UAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (22.3¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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