Will Royce White be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
Probability
5¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
-0.4pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$17.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
-3.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 2576h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 4.7¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2575.9h
- 16:03SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 2576h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 16:03PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 5¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.7pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.7pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.8pp
to 6¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota. If no 2026 Minnesota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 11, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (4.7¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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