PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 2, 2026
Creator

Will Ryan Busse be the Democratic nominee for MT-01?

Probability

65¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+7.5pp

24h Vol

$514.40

Liquidity

$5.6K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 2, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MT-01 congressional district seat in th
Link
democrats.org
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+4.0pp 7d
May 2, 2026, 05:00May 9, 2026, 04:38
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-09T04-38Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 8pp over 24h

    Now 65¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $5.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 571.4h

    LOW
  • 04:38Signal

    Resolution risk

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

    LOW

Price movement

+7.5pp over the last 24h, now 65¢.

Biggest hourly move: -14.0pp at 21:00 (to 45¢).

Show top 8 of 34 hourly moves
  • 04:00 · +5.5pp → 65¢
  • 02:00 · +5.5pp → 65¢
  • 00:00 · +5.5pp → 65¢
  • 21:00 · -14.0pp → 45¢
  • 18:00 · +8.5pp → 68¢
  • 17:00 · +8.5pp → 68¢
  • 06:00 · +5.0pp → 64¢
  • 4d ago · -7.0pp → 59¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventMT-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

midterm election

Reason

Election markets are Politics.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Ryan Busse be the Democratic nominee for MT-01?"?

As of Sat, 09 May 2026 04:38:18 GMT, YES is priced at 65% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +7.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +4.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 2, 2026 (2026-06-02T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$514.40 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $5.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

12 wallets
Open on Polymarket