Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
Probability
32¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-6.0pp
24h Vol
$275.53
Liquidity
$14.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5995.4h
- 04:37SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5995h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 04:37PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 32¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 32¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 33¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 32¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 33¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 33¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 33¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 33¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 33¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 38¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 39¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 38¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 38¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 38¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 38¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 38¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 39¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 39¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 39¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 40¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Supreme CourtCourt recordextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).