Will Sergei Pavlovich be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Probability
24¢
1h
-1.2pp
24h
+15.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$2.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
-3.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 16pp over 24h
Now 24¢; -1.2pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 47.7¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5985.7h
- 14:19SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.2pp
to 25¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.7pp
to 23¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 23¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.1pp
to 24¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 10¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.4pp
to 10¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.3pp
to 10¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.9pp
to 10¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.8pp
to 10¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.4pp
to 9¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 8¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.2pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 10¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 10¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.6pp
to 10¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.6pp
to 8¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 8¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.6pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.4pp
to 10¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.1pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.1pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.4pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.1pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.2pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.3pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.6pp
to 22¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 22¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 24¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 41¢-0.5pp
Will Tom Aspinall be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Sports · Vol $199.06
- 15¢+4.9pp
Will Serghei Spivac be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Fighter C be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Fighter F be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 8¢0.0pp
Will Alexander Volkov be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 15¢+10.0pp
Will Jailton Almeida be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Fighter B be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Fighter E be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 0¢-42.4pp
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings
Sports · Vol $3.1M
- 1¢0.0pp
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $1.6M
- 100¢0.0pp
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs South America Rejects - Game 2 Winner
Sports · Vol $1.2M
- 25¢0.0pp
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs
Sports · Vol $892.3K
- 4¢+0.4pp
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Sports · Vol $795.5K
- 0¢0.0pp
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner
Sports · Vol $772.3K
Market Description
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ETAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (47.7¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).