Will Son Heung-min record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

• 01
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk observation firing

  Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

• 02
  Spread cost

  Wide spread — 44.5¢

  Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

This market will resolve to the player who records the most goal contributions combined through all rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition. For the purpose of this market, a goal contribution is defined exclusively as the number of combined goals and assists a player has recorded. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by FIFA World Cup rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player who scored more goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.