Will South African inflation be greater than 5.0% in 2026?
Probability
41¢
1h
-2.1pp
24h
-2.3pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
+3.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 41¢; -2.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6452h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 54.8¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6451.6h
- 04:24SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 6452h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-0.9pp over the last 24h, now 41¢.
Biggest hourly move: +22.0pp at 1d ago (to 51¢).
Show top 8 of 47 hourly moves
- 17:00 · +15.7pp → 44¢
- 14:00 · +14.9pp → 43¢
- 1d ago · +16.9pp → 45¢
- 1d ago · +22.0pp → 51¢
- 2d ago · +18.3pp → 47¢
- 2d ago · +20.0pp → 48¢
- 2d ago · +19.9pp → 48¢
- 2d ago · +18.7pp → 49¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report. The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 20, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according toLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (54.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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