Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 30 in 2026?
Probability
56¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$141.09
Probability (last 7 days)
+3.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6008h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 35.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6008.1h
- 20:56SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 6008h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 56¢.
Biggest hourly move: +8.0pp at 2d ago (to 55¢).
Show all 14 hour-by-hour ticks
- 01:00 · +5.0pp → 56¢
- 22:00 · +4.5pp → 55¢
- 1d ago · +5.5pp → 56¢
- 1d ago · +5.5pp → 55¢
- 1d ago · +3.0pp → 56¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 56¢
- 2d ago · +6.5pp → 56¢
- 2d ago · -6.5pp → 49¢
- 2d ago · -3.0pp → 53¢
- 2d ago · +8.0pp → 55¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 56¢
- 2d ago · -3.0pp → 53¢
- 3d ago · +4.0pp → 56¢
- 3d ago · +4.0pp → 56¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Volmex 1 minute candle for the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index between January 26, 2026, 11:30 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" value equal to or lower than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Volmex, specifically the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index "Low" values available at https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the data from the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index chart. Values from other exchanges or different indexes will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarycharts.volmex.financeTypeSource not classifiedConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (35.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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