Will the Chicago Bears leave Illinois by Dec. 31?
Probability
45¢
1h
-2.5pp
24h
+11.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$77.34
Probability (last 7 days)
+8.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 11pp over 24h
Now 45¢; -2.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6003h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 56.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6003.5h
- 20:32SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 6003h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+9.0pp over the last 24h, now 43¢.
Biggest hourly move: -13.0pp at 2d ago (to 22¢).
Show all 27 hour-by-hour ticks
- 20:32 · +4.5pp → 43¢
- 17:00 · +10.5pp → 48¢
- 15:00 · -6.0pp → 33¢
- 14:00 · -5.5pp → 33¢
- 12:00 · -5.5pp → 33¢
- 11:00 · -4.0pp → 33¢
- 09:00 · -5.5pp → 33¢
- 08:00 · -4.0pp → 33¢
- 06:00 · -5.5pp → 33¢
- 05:00 · -5.5pp → 33¢
- 03:00 · -5.0pp → 34¢
- 22:00 · -5.0pp → 34¢
- 1d ago · -3.5pp → 34¢
- 1d ago · -3.5pp → 34¢
- 1d ago · -5.5pp → 26¢
- 1d ago · -7.0pp → 24¢
- 1d ago · -7.5pp → 28¢
- 2d ago · -13.0pp → 22¢
- 2d ago · -10.5pp → 22¢
- 2d ago · -9.5pp → 22¢
- 2d ago · -10.5pp → 25¢
- 2d ago · +4.0pp → 36¢
- 2d ago · +4.5pp → 36¢
- 2d ago · +4.5pp → 36¢
- 2d ago · +6.5pp → 37¢
- 2d ago · +7.0pp → 39¢
- 2d ago · +6.5pp → 39¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Chicago Bears franchise of the NFL officially announce a plan to move and play their home games permanently anywhere outside of the state of Illinois by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, any temporary change in venue will not be considered. For the purpose of this market, no naming changes will be taken into consideration, only official announcements about the home playing field of the Chicago Bears franchise. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chicago Bears franchise and/or the NFL.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (56.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.