Will the Democrats win the Illinois Senate race in 2026?
Probability
91¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$18.58
Liquidity
$17.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Thin liquidity
Only $17.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 90¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 90¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 90¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 89¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 90¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Associated PressNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).