Will the median home value in the US be between $437,000 and $439,000 on April 30?
Probability
11¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$256.59
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 6.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 105.7h
- 14:19SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -27.5pp
to 11¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
13- 11¢-0.5pp
Will the median home value in the US be less than $429,000 on April 30?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 22¢-2.0pp
Will the median home value in the US be between $435,000 and $437,000 on April 30?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 13¢0.0pp
Will the median home value in the US be between $429,000 and $431,000 on April 30?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 29¢+3.5pp
Will the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $435,000 on April 30?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 6¢-0.5pp
Will the median home value in the US be greater than $441,000 on April 30?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 20¢+3.0pp
Will the median home value in the US be between $431,000 and $433,000 on April 30?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 7¢-0.5pp
Will the median home value in the US be between $439,000 and $441,000 on April 30?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 61¢+1.0pp
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $3.4M
- 1¢-0.4pp
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Other · Vol $1.4M
- 60¢+2.0pp
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $1.2M
- 100¢+59.0pp
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner
Other · Vol $1.1M
- 0¢-35.4pp
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
Other · Vol $1.0M
- 0¢-39.5pp
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $863.3K
Market Description
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 30, 2026. If no data for April 30 is released by May 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/24)
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.