Regal-Photo
0xdb8b91d17183825f84a6b1fdc227f0b554af4c72
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$60.33
Total PnL
$4.59
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?
36 shares @ 50.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$27.54
$9.54
- YES
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.0m & 4.2m square kilometers?
149 shares @ 12.7¢·now 10.0¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$14.87
$-4.03
- YES
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.6m & 4.8m square kilometers?
46 shares @ 10.8¢·now 18.9¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$8.77
$3.77
- YES
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.2m & 4.4m square kilometers?
37 shares @ 13.6¢·now 16.8¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$6.16
$1.16
- YES
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4.6m square kilometers?
15 shares @ 13.4¢·now 16.7¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$2.49
$0.49
- YES
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?
28 shares @ 3.5¢·now 1.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.39
$-0.61
- YES
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?
23 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.10
$-0.90
- YES
Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?
78 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
8 shares @ 22.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.83
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$20.09Jul 19, 06:45 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by June 30, 2026?$7.44May 17, 14:43 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by May 15, 2026?$0.62May 11, 14:06 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?$0.00May 4, 13:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$1.90May 4, 06:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill April 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?$1.37May 3, 12:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill April 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?$0.44May 3, 12:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$3.10May 2, 06:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?$1.00Apr 29, 07:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill King Charles say "Special Relationship" during the joint meeting of Congress?$0.00Apr 29, 05:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill King Charles say "NATO" during the joint meeting of Congress?$4.29Apr 29, 05:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill King Charles say "NATO" during the joint meeting of Congress?$3.00Apr 28, 06:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill King Charles say "Special Relationship" during the joint meeting of Congress?$2.00Apr 28, 06:28 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?$0.00Apr 27, 20:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.0m & 4.2m square kilometers?$3.90Apr 27, 07:33 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?$2.00Apr 27, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?$0.00Apr 26, 10:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?$1.00Apr 25, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?$5.00Apr 25, 05:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 15, 2026?$2.00Apr 25, 05:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $5.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 19, 16:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 06:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.