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GeopoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires May 10, 2026

Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 27?

Probability

34¢

1h

+0.1pp

24h

+20.0pp

24h Vol

$12.1K

Liquidity

$30.2K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 22, 2026, 00:00Apr 25, 2026, 11:52
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 348.1h

    LOW
  • 11:52Signal

    Signal · Momentum up

    Probability moved up 20.0pp in 24h with 0.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH
  • 11:52Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 348h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 11:00Price

    Probability up 23.5pp

    to 34¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability up 14.7pp

    to 22¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability up 17.0pp

    to 24¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 14.3pp

    to 23¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 14.8pp

    to 22¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 11.4pp

    to 20¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 4.8pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability up 4.9pp

    to 18¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 6.1pp

    to 16¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 12.0pp

    to 16¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability down -3.6pp

    to 8¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability down -19.3pp

    to 7¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability down -21.6pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -41.4pp

    to 8¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the listed date (Pakistan Standard Time) on which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran occurs. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 10, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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