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OtherMulti-outcomeExpires Dec 31, 2026

Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1400.00 and 1449.99 at the end of December 2026?

Probability

11¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$699.62

Probability (last 7 days)

-0.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 17:00Apr 25, 2026, 16:47
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 5983h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Wide spread — 14.2¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

Loading prose summary — see the structured breakdown above.

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 5983.2h

    LOW
  • 16:47Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 5983h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventArgentina Official USD Exchange Rate end of 2026?
Category · Other

Market Description

This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA). This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/). If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date. The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) ComAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
bcra.gob.ar
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (14.2¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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